Rotary Central Melbourne
Report – (in person) Meeting at RACV Tuesday 15 February 2022
Reporter: | Tom Callander |
Chair: | Neville John |
President: | Elias Lebbos |
Our meeting was an “in-person” meeting at the RACV.
President Elias opened the meeting by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land. Neville John proposed the toast to Rotary International.
The President welcomed our guest speaker Professor Michael Asten and also Brian Morne. There were no visiting Rotarians.
Announcements
- Allan Driver announced member milestones - see below.
- Anne King mentioned that at the President Elect’s training seminar last weekend favourable remarks were made about our Club which is held in high esteem.
- Doug Robertson mentioned that the first Youth Mental Health Course has been sold out and names are now being taken for the next.
- Neville John informed the Club that Michael Lapiña now a member of Wyndham Rotary but formerly a member of our Club, has been selected as District Governor Nominee for District 9800 (to take over as District Governor in three years’ time).
Member Milestones
Member’s Birthdays
Neville John 15th February
David Laurie 20th February
Partner Birthdays
Neville John, Rebecca John’s partner 15th February
Jasmeet Sekhon, Sonia Dhillon’s partner 15th February
Wedding Anniversaries
Daniel Lim and Angela Ma 2 years 17th February 2020
Date Joined Rotary
Nil
Guest speaker – Professor (retired) Michael Asten
Neville John introduced Michael Asten, Professor of Geophysics, now retired after 23 years at the School of Birth Atmosphere & Environment, Monash University Melbourne. Full details of Michael’s background were set out in last week’s Club Bulletin.
In association with a number of other academics in America and Europe, and using time series analysis of methods from past work, he has been researching for the last nine years the role of natural cycles in centennial and millennial global climate change.
He is now part of “Energy Bureau”.
He addressed us in a most informative manner about synchronous natural climate cycles over the millennia in Central Europe, the Arctic, and East Asia and what they tell us and foretell about global temperature change.
Research has found evidence for multi-centennial climate cycles within the ages commonly described as the Medieval Warming Period and the Little Ice Age. By comparing four proxy temperature records they have found evidence for the synchronicity of
200-year and 1,000-year cycles across the northern hemisphere. This also highlights events in history which have played major roles in the rise and fall of human advancement or reduction of civilisation in the past 1,000 to 2,000 years.
The researchers examined glaciers in the European alps, China records and glaciers, Arctic drift ice, particularly near Iceland, and by a resultant “Global Proxy 67”, and also a study of previous penguin populations by the Ross Sea Ice shelf in Antarctica.
In Europe, they particularly examined the Great Aletsch glacier in Switzerland. This has been shrinking over the last century. When glaciers melt they leave behind rocks brought down from glacial movement. The rocks are affected by cosmic rays which affect changes in chemistry which can be measured to date how long the rocks have been in particular places. Another way is to measure the time data of large trees which have been caught up in glaciers eg. a tree dated back to 600BC.
He showed a graph recording these features over 2,000 years. In 1850 the Little Ice Age ended and the glacier has shrunk be 3.5 kms since. The recorded evidence indicates there are cycles for warmer periods and colder periods. For example, the Medieval Warming Period occurred 1,000 years ago but there have been a number of cold cycles particularly around 600AD, 1300AD and 1700AD when cold conditions resulted in crop failures, famine and misery. 600AD was the end of the Roman empire. In the 1700s famine and crop failure resulted in populations looking for persons to blame, regarded as witches (some evidence that 25,000 persons, male and female, were burnt as witches in that period).
He suggested that the warmer cycles correlated with growth in human endeavour eg. the growth of the Roman republic and empire, the Italian renaissance, and the age of enlightenment.
In China, written records go back 500 years. Glacier lengths were also examined.
In the Arctic sea, the extent of ice flows down to Iceland was able to be measured by bio-chemistry markers eg. C25 lipids.
The cycles are recorded by a “G7 global proxy temperature curve” with four curves between 0-2000AD. These show a synchromatic correlation between the different parts of the northern hemisphere measured. These curves can be used to project what is happening now and what may happen by 2100. Michael believes that high temperatures are peaking now and by 2100 temperatures will fall to those of the levels around 1900. Michael acknowledged the current climate change science and Co2 impacts. He considered there would be some warming from Co2 effects, but this is probably only a small fraction of total warming which occurs in the cycles recorded. There has been an increase in Co2 from 1850, with industrialisation, a contributor to the spike in temperature rise.
He also referred to some analysis made of current and past penguin colonies near the Ross Sea in Antarctica. Currently, there are no penguins in this area but there are remains of past penguin colonies which, on examination, indicate that penguins left or died out around 600AD and were then evident around 1000AD and again around 1300AD but nothing back to 1500AD.
In answer to questions Michael described how technology has improved measuring climate change over the millennia. He was asked about causes of warmer temperatures if this was not primarily Co2. He explained that the observations made were observations about the temperature levels and cycles and that possible causes still need to be investigated and proved. One possible cause, which he favours, is the variation in cosmic ray activity associated with the sun’s dynamics. He referred to the different viewpoints which are held, resulting in what may be described as the “climate wars” but he considers that all evidence needs to be considered and to which regard should be had by the experts in their different fields.
President’s announcements
President Elias noted:
- Members are asked to complete the membership survey (online).
- District grants are available so think of projects for which a grant may be requested.
- There is a Board meeting on Wednesday on zoom (all welcome to join).
- Michael Lapiña’s District Governor Nomination.
- The acknowledgement of this Club’s work by District relating to the President-Elect training seminar.
- The Japanese Rotary Foundation scholar who has now arrived in Melbourne and who will come to our next meeting.
