Predicting bushfires in the world’s second driest continent

Predicting bushfires in the world’s second driest continent
Jun 29, 2021 7:40 AM
John Bally
Predicting bushfires in the world’s second driest continent

Australia has a long history of fire which has changed the face of the continent, brought many benefits and wreaked some havoc in more recent times.

Systematic prediction of bushfires in Australia began with the work of Luke and McArthur in the 1950s and 60s at the CSIRO in Canberra, and the techniques they developed are still in use 60 years later. This is a testament to the quality of their work, but is also a reflection of the complexities of bushfire behaviour and the difficulty of formulating more accurate and more widely applicable methods.

During the early 2000s Kevin Tolhurst at Melbourne University applied improved versions of McArthur’s calculations that worked across wider areas, running on computers to do the thousands of calculations required. This approach has demonstrated the benefits of a system that simulates fire spreading across landscapes, but does not accommodate the latest bushfire science, or enable the science currently being developed to be incorporated.

To take advantage of rapidly expanding scientific understanding, new sources of landscape data and a revolution in computer processing power, a new approach is needed.

John Bally is a graduate of the Australian National University, with degrees in Law and Arts (Political Science), and lives in Melbourne. He currently works at the Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Council (AFAC). He has previously held a range of senior science, operational, policy and management positions at the Bureau of Meteorology.

John’s recent work includes:
  • Developing the national strategy for bushfire simulation, being delivered through partnership agreements with CSIRO and the Minderoo foundation; The strategy has been formulated through a national consultation process, focusing on the requirements of fire behaviour analysts at fire state agencies;
  • Managing the Tasmania and Antarctic region of the BoM, overseeing the delivery of weather, atmospheric monitoring and warning services to the Tasmanian public, state government agencies & industry and the Australian Antarctic Program;
  • Advancing our national tropical cyclone, severe storm and fire weather prediction capability as the BoM national manager for severe weather and disaster mitigation.
  • Leading the design and development of key BoM operational weather forecast and warning systems as the BoM forecast systems scientist.
  • Participating in two UN sponsored World Weather Research Program forecast demonstration projects at the Sydney 2000 and Beijing 2008 Olympic games, working with SOCOG and the Beijing Meteorological Bureau to utilise the latest radar-based storm prediction systems to enhance the safety major public events.