The forecast for D-Day
Sep 15, 2020 7:40 AM
Dick Whitaker
The forecast for D-Day

“The Forecast for D-Day”, is the story behind the decision to choose 6th June 1944 as the day for the invasion of occupied Europe. For military reasons, the requirements for the Allied forces included specific moon phases and tides. These variables could be predicted accurately months in advance using astronomical and tide tables. But the other requirement – the weather – was a much more difficult proposition.

“The Forecast for D-Day” examines how the Allies’ meteorological team went about this very difficult forecast, in the days before satellite images and weather radars had become available. It was also a time of a vastly reduced network of weather observations, with very little meteorological information coming in from occupied Europe.

James Stagg, the Chief Meteorologist, had the difficult task of reaching a consensus from three different forecasting teams that had very different methodologies and divergent beliefs in the predictability of the weather. The story of how they all came together and finally decided on the 6th June 1944 is one of the more fascinating back stories of the war.

As the invasion forces prepared to depart ,General Morgan remarked to Stagg: "Good luck Stagg: may all your depressions be nice little ones: but remember, we'll string you up from the nearest lamp post if you don't read the omens aright."

Dick Whitaker was a weather forecaster in the Bureau of Meteorology for 30 years, during which time he undertook several specialised roles. He has worked with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a rapporteur for the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology, was a consultant in the AusAID funded “Enhanced Applications of Climate Predictions in Pacific Island Countries” (travelling extensively in the Pacific Islands) and began the Bureau of Meteorology’s “Indigenous Weather Knowledge” endeavour in 2001. He then spent ten years as Chief Meteorologist with Sky News Weather. Dick has been author, co-author and consultant editor of seventeen general interest books about the weather, including publications for Time-Life and Reader’s Digest. He has a long-standing interest in public education about weather and climate through community talks to Probus, Rotary, Lions, schools and U3A audiences.